Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 2, 2015

Forum is somewhat of an anomaly among pollsters right now. Unlike other pollsters, who have been trending towards the Conservatives retaking the lead and the Liberals nipping at their heels, Forum had the Conservatives in third last week. This week, there is not much difference. The NDP has 36%, which is a definite slip from last week (40%). However, this was made up mostly by the Liberals with 32% (+2%). The Conservatives only increased one point to 24%. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois increased one point each to 4% each.

Last week, the NDP was projected to have a majority with 175 seats, the Liberals in the Opposition with 89 seats, the Conservatives in third party status with 70, the Bloc having 3, and the Greens retaining 1.

Here is this week’s numbers using my model*:
British Columbia: 37% New Democratic (24 seats), 31% Liberal (10 seats), 24% Conservative (8 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 45% Conservative (24 seats), 30% New Democratic (7 seats), 20% Liberal (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 35% Liberal (12 seats), 34% New Democratic (10 seats), 27% Conservative (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 42% Liberal (71 seats), 32% New Democratic (31 seats), 21% Conservative (17 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 43% New Democratic (57 seats), 22% Conservative (9 seats),18% Liberal (7 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 41% Liberal (26 seats), 40% New Democratic (13 seats), 16% Conservative (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36% New Democratic (143 seats), 32% Liberal (129 seats), 24% Conservative (59 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)

Since Northern Canada was not polled, I am going to keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With this week’s numbers, a curious thing is happening that is certainly not predicted in any other poll – the NDP plurality is commonplace with 143 seats. However, no other poll has predicted the Liberals would form a close Official Opposition with 129 seats, or that the Conservatives would be a distant third party with 59 seats. The Bloc have 5 seats and the Greens have 2.

Do I necessarily believe that these are how the numbers are going to pan out if election day was held tomorrow? If the other polls are any other indication, it would make these results unlikely. However, we have learned from British Columbia in 2013 that just because most of the polls say something and one poll says something else, it doesn’t make the majority true. Maybe Forum is right. If so, alright news for the NDP, great news for the Liberals, and horrid news for the Conservatives, who would be reduced from contender for government to kingmaker.

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Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 2, 2015

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