Seat Projections: Polls in August 25-28, 2015

I would like to begin this post by apologizing for my lack of updates over the last few days. To make up for it, I will do a survey of the 5 polls that came out over the last week. The polls from August 17-24 have the electoral horserace in all different states – an NDP landslide and majority government, the NDP in third in the popular vote relegated to a stagnant Official Opposition, the Conservatives retaining a plurality, the Conservatives coming in third, and the Liberals in both commanding second place finishes and distant third place finishes. Here are the results of this week’s polls.

EKOS, August 25, 2015*:
British Columbia: 38% New Democratic (24 seats), 28% Conservative (9 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 9% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 51% Conservative (28 seats), 23% New Democratic (4 seats), 18% Liberal (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 42% Conservative (9 seats), 27% New Democratic (3 seats), 25% Liberal (2 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 34% Liberal (5 seats), 30% Conservative (6 seats), 25% New Democratic (3 seats), 10% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 33% Liberal (40 seats), 30% Conservative (42 seats), 30% New Democratic (36 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 44% New Democratic (57 seats), 17% Conservative (7 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 16% Liberal (6 seats), 5% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 45% Liberal (23 seats), 34% New Democratic (7 seats), 14% Conservative (2 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33.6% New Democratic (135 seats), 28.1% Conservative (105 seats), 26.7% Liberal (85 seats), 5.8% Green (6 seats), 4.1% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Ipsos Reid, August 26, 2015*:
British Columbia: 34% Conservative (15 seats), 31% New Democratic (13 seats), 30% Liberal (13 seats), 5% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 47% Conservative (26 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 22% Liberal (4 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 38% Conservative (14 seats), 36% Liberal (10 seats), 20% New Democratic (4 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 33% Liberal (40 seats), 32% New Democratic (39 seats), 31% Conservative (39 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 40% New Democratic (53 seats), 25% Liberal (13 seats), 16% Conservative (6 seats), 16% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 46% Liberal (21 seats), 35% New Democratic (7 seats), 17% Conservative (4 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33% New Democratic (121 seats), 30% Liberal (101 seats), 29% Conservative (106 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats), 4% Green (4 seats)

Innovative Research, August 26, 2015*:
British Columbia: 33% New Democratic (14 seats), 30% Conservative (19 seats), 25% Liberal (8 seats), 11% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 44% Conservative (24 seats), 32% New Democratic (7 seats), 19% Liberal (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 41% Conservative (18 seats), 27% Liberal (5 seats), 26% New Democratic (5 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 32% Conservative (44 seats), 31% Liberal (38 seats), 29% New Democratic (35 seats), 6% Green (4 seats)
Quebec: 41% New Democratic (53 seats), 22% Liberal (11 seats), 17% Conservative (7 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 43% Liberal (20 seats), 27% New Democratic (6 seats), 24% Conservative (6 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32% New Democratic (121 seats), 30% Conservative (120 seats), 27% Liberal (83 seats), 6% Green (7 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Nanos Research, August 28, 2015*:
British Columbia: 32% New Democratic (15 seats), 30% Liberal (13 seats), 26% Conservative (11 seats), 12% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 45% Conservative (44 seats), 27% New Democratic (11 seats), 18% Liberal (6 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Ontario: 38% Conservative (58 seats), 35% Liberal (42 seats), 23% New Democratic (19 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 41% New Democratic (53 seats), 26% Liberal (14 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 11% Conservative (3 seats), 4% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 49% Liberal (22 seats), 36% New Democratic (8 seats), 14% Conservative (2 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Total: 30.8% New Democratic (107 seats), 29.7% Liberal (97 seats), 28.8% Conservative (120 seats), 5.4% Green (7 seats), 4.2% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Abacus Data, August 28, 2015*:
British Columbia: 32% Conservative (19 seats), 31% New Democratic (13 seats), 20% Liberal (6 seats), 15% Green (4 seats)
Alberta: 53% Conservative (28 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 15% Liberal (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 43% Conservative (19 seats), 30% Liberal (6 seats), 22% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 34% Liberal (41 seats), 33% Conservative (51 seats), 26% New Democratic (25 seats), 7% Green (4 seats)
Quebec: 44% New Democratic (62 seats), 23% Liberal (9 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 13% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 5% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 47% Liberal (21 seats), 31% New Democratic (7 seats), 19% Conservative (4 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31% New Democratic (115 seats), 30% Conservative (126 seats), 28% Liberal (85 seats), 7% Green (9 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

Here are the ranges from the polls:
Nationally: 30.8%-33.6% New Democratic (107-135 seats), 28.1%-30% Conservative (105-126 seats), 26.7%-30% Liberal (83-101 seats), 4-7% Green (4-9 seats), 3-4.2% Bloc Quebecois (3-7 seats)
British Columbia: 31-38% New Democratic (13-24 seats), 26-34% Conservative (9-19 seats), 20-30% Liberal (6-13 seats), 5-15% Green (1-4 seats)
Alberta: 44-53% Conservative (24-28 seats), 23-32% New Democratic (4-7 seats), 15-22% Liberal (2-4 seats), 2-6% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 36-43% Conservative (14-20 seats), 18-36% Liberal (3-10 seats), 20-27% New Democratic (4-6 seats), 3-10% Green (0-1 seats)
Ontario: 30-38% Conservative (39-58 seats), 31-35% Liberal (38-42 seats), 23-32% New Democratic (19-39 seats), 4-7% Green (2-4 seats)
Quebec: 40-44% New Democratic (53-62 seats), 16-26% Liberal (6-14 seats), 13-17% Bloc Quebecois (3-7 seats), 11-17% Conservative (3-7 seats), 2-5% Green (0-1 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 43-49% Liberal (20-23 seats), 27-36% New Democratic (6-8 seats), 14-24% Conservative (2-6 seats), 1-7% Green (0 seats)

Overall, the picture is about the same as it was last week – the NDP with a plurality in votes, the Conservatives close behind (and close enough to possibly still win a plurality), and the Liberals in varying degrees of third place. The Bloc and Greens each would have a handful of seats, but are short of Official Party Status.

However, there is a trend that is showing up in these polls – the NDP vote is more inefficient than it was last week. Frequently, the same pluralities in popular vote that led to pluralities in my other projections now lead to second place finishes. This could be due to the fact that British Columbia in certain polls is now a battleground between the NDP and Conservatives. In addition, this could also be due to the three-way-race status of Ontario in some instances and a Conservative-Liberal race in Ontario in others. The NDP will have to keep solid footing in Ontario to get the necessary plurality. Wherever the NDP is weak, the Conservatives stand to gain from vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals and the Liberals can gain some anti-Harper votes.

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Seat Projections: Polls in August 25-28, 2015

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