Since Nanos was last in the field, there has been very small movement between the parties, but enough to change the order. The Conservatives remain in 1st place in the popular vote with 30.1%, but this is down 1.7% from last time. The Liberals have gone from third to second place with 29.9% of the vote, an increase of 1.2%. The NDP has increased 0.1% to 29.1%, but has now dropped down to an incredibly close third. The Greens have dropped 0.1% to 5.2%, and the Bloc has gained 0.2% to now have 4.7%.
Last week, I projected the Conservatives to have 147 seats, the NDP 105, the Liberals 73, the Bloc Quebecois 9, and the Greens 4.
Here is this week’s seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 38% New Democratic (23 seats), 31% Liberal (10 seats), 23% Conservative (8 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Prairies: 48% Conservative (48 seats), 23% New Democratic (7 seats), 21% Liberal (7 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 40% Conservative (70 seats), 32% Liberal (31 seats), 21% New Democratic (17 seats), 7% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 37% New Democratic (46 seats), 28% Liberal (17 seats), 19% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 12% Conservative (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 47% Liberal (21 seats), 35% New Democratic (7 seats), 18% Conservative (4 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Total: 30.1% Conservative (137 seats), 29.9% Liberal (86 seats), 29.1% New Democratic (101 seats), 5.2% Green (4 seats), 4.7% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats)
*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.
There is a little more visible movement with the seat count. The Conservatives remain with a plurality but drop 10 seats to 137, and the NDP is in third in the popular vote but only loses 4 seats and is still second place in the seat count with 101. The Liberals get the lion’s share of the losses of the Conservatives and NDP and get 86 seats, an increase of 13. The Bloc Quebecois gains one seat and now has 10, 2 short of Official Party Status. The Greens remain the same at 4 seats.
Since last week, the Conservatives have made no significant gains and have had some declines in the Prairies and Ontario. This is not necessarily a bad sign for them, since these are comedowns from unusual highs in their numbers. However, they should watch the Prairies and Ontario and try to maintain these last strongholds.
The NDP has made some marginal gains in the Prairies, but those gains are diluted by losses in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. Again, these are not of much impact, but it is unusual that both the Conservatives and NDP are declining somewhat in their respective strongholds.
The only significant move the Liberals have made are gains in the Prairies and Ontario. The Prairies represent largely untapped ground for the Liberals, and if they can eat away at the Conservatives’ stronghold while keeping the NDP’s numbers low, they can eat away at the Conservative lead. If they are able to open up a lead in Ontario, then they have a way to a plurality.