Seat Projection: Angus Reid Poll, August 24, 2015

It has been almost two months since Angus Reid was in the field with a poll. It has just recently released one showing the results of a survey done on August 24. Last time around, the NDP had 36%, the Conservatives had 33%, the Liberals had 23%, and the Bloc Quebecois and Greens had 4% each. This time around, the numbers have held, with the exception of the Conservatives dropping from 33% to 32%.

Last time around, the NDP was projected to get 142 seats, the Conservatives 135, the Liberals 54, the Bloc Quebecois 4, and the Greens 3.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 37% New Democratic (21 seats), 32% Conservative (13 seats), 22% Liberal (6 seats), 8% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 58% Conservative (31 seats), 21% New Democratic (2 seats), 13% Liberal (1 seat), 7% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 48% Conservative (11 seats), 31% New Democratic (3 seats), 18% Liberal (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 44% Conservative (9 seats), 27% Liberal (3 seats), 24% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 33% Conservative (51 seats), 33% New Democratic (40 seats), 28% Liberal (27 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 51% New Democratic (66 seats), 17% Liberal (4 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 14% Conservative (4 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 39% Liberal (18 seats), 30% New Democratic (8 seats), 25% Conservative (6 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36% New Democratic (143 seats), 32% Conservative (127 seats), 23% Liberal (59 seats), 4% Green (5 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

*No information as to the Territories, so their seats stay with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

The NDP are almost exactly in the place they were two months ago, a plurality with 143 seats – a gain of one. The Conservatives decreased 8 seats to 127. These were mostly picked up by the Liberals, who gained 5 seats to now have 59. However, the Greens picked up 2 as well and have now increased to 5. The Bloc remains projected to get 4 seats.

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Seat Projection: Angus Reid Poll, August 24, 2015

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