Forum, previously one of the pollsters slow to the party when it came to the NDP’s surge, now has the NDP continuing its lead whilst other pollsters (namely Leger Marketing and Nanos) are predicting a narrowing race. In their latest poll, the NDP remains in first with 34%, the same as last week. The Conservatives and Liberals have each gained one percentage point to have 29% and 28% support, respectively. The Bloc Quebecois declined 2 points and is now at 4% support nationwide, and the Greens remain at 4%.
Last time around, Forum projected the NDP to have 125 seats, the Conservatives 120, the Liberals 89, the Bloc 3, and the Greens 1, and I projected the NDP to have 131 seats, the Conservatives 107, the Liberals 87, the Bloc 11, and the Greens 2.
This time around, Forum has projected the NDP to have 133 seats, the Conservatives 123, the Liberals 79, the Bloc 2, and the Greens 1.
Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 39% New Democratic (25 seats), 28% Liberal (8 seats), 24% Conservative (8 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 47% Conservative (26 seats), 27% New Democratic (5 seats), 20% Liberal (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 42% Conservative (18 seats), 28% New Democratic (5 seats), 26% Liberal (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 33% Conservative (42 seats), 32% Liberal (39 seats), 31% New Democratic (38 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 40% New Democratic (53 seats), 23% Liberal (12 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 16% Conservative (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 39% New Democratic (18 seats), 32% Liberal (8 seats), 25% Conservative (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34% New Democratic (145 seats), 29% Conservative (108 seats), 28% Liberal (75 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 4% Green (3 seats)
*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I am going to keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.
With my numbers, the NDP has 145 seats, 14 more than last time. The Conservatives have 108 seats, one more than last time. The Liberals have 75 seats, 14 less than last time, at the national level appearing to be picked up by the NDP. The Bloc Quebecois decrease 4 to 7 seats, and the Greens have 3 seats, an increase of 1. The status quo remains – the NDP and Conservatives are the top two parties, and the Liberals are the potential kingmaker, in third and ideologically between the Conservatives and NDP.
The NDP has increased in British Columbia, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, remained the same in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and declined in Alberta and Ontario. These are mostly good signs for the NDP – they are consolidating their strongholds, and beating out the Liberals in the one area where they have led the pack. The declines in Alberta and Ontario are miniscule, and in Alberta’s case the party was already at a low level of federal support. In Ontario, it still remains a three way race.
The Conservatives have largely remained the same. However, they have made slight gains in Alberta and Ontario, and slight declines in British Columbia and Quebec. They are at a very difficult crossroads with a low support ceiling and the almost certain loss of British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. The way to a solid plurality is through Ontario – they have to break the three-way deadlock that exists in the seat-rich province.
The Liberals have possibly the easiest road to power, as was said a few days ago, but they have yet to capitalize on it. They are in second place in many places, but are not leading anywhere. They have made slight gains in Ontario and Quebec, but have declined slightly in British Columbia and sharply in Atlantic Canada, losing their lead to the NDP. This is not a good sign for them, They have to take back Atlantic Canada and gain a lead in Ontario, where they are beating the NDP – by a hair, but by something.