A month ago, Forum took a poll of Ontarian preferences at the provincial level. The NDP under longtime leader Andrea Horwath last time around had 35%, the Progressive Conservatives under new leader Pat Brown had 33%, and the governing Liberals were in third with 26%. The Greens had 5%, but this did not translate into seats. These results pegged the NDP with a minority government at 49 seats, the Progressive Conservatives in the Official Opposition with 37 seats, and the Liberals the third party (with balance of power potential that is unlikely to be used) with 21 seats.
This time around, it is the Progressive Conservatives who have 35% and the NDP with 33%, trading each other’s previous result. The Liberals remain the same with 26%, and the Greens have dropped one point to 4%.
Forum predicts that the Conservatives will have a majority with 54 seats, the NDP in Opposition with 34, and the Liberals in third with 19.
Here is the seat projection using my model*:
Eastern Ontario: 35% Progressive Conservative (6 seats), 33% Liberal (5 seats), 27% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 34% Progressive Conservative (9 seats), 30% New Democratic (7 seats), 28% Liberal (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
905: 40% Progressive Conservative (25 seats), 35% New Democratic (9 seats), 22% Liberal (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 36% New Democratic (8 seats), 33% Progressive Conservative (11 seats), 23% Liberal (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 35% New Democratic (5 seats), 34% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 22% Liberal (2 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35% Progressive Conservative (55 seats), 33% New Democratic (32 seats), 26% Liberal (20 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
*The 416 and GTA results were combined, since I had the numbers available to me.
With my numbers, the Progressive Conservatives have 55 seats, a slim majority and an increase of 18 seats from the last poll. The NDP would have 32 seats, a decrease of 17 from last time. The Liberals would win 20 seats, a decrease of one from last time. The Greens would remain shut out of the legislature.
If current trends hold, the Liberals may be looking at an end to their power for a long while, and it would be between the NDP and PC’s to succeed the Liberals.