Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, August 17, 2015

It has been a while since Abacus Data was in the field, but now that it’s a federal election things may change. The last time they took a poll was on July 6. They had the NDP at 32%, the Conservatives at 29%, the Liberals at 27%, and the Greens and Bloc with 6% each. As of their August 17 poll, not much has changed. The NDP, bucking the other pollsters’ trend of a narrowing three-way race, is now with a wider lead at 35%. The Conservatives remain in second with 29%, unchanged. The Liberals have dropped a point to 26%, the Greens remain at 6%, and the Bloc drops to 3%, half of its last result. Last time around, the NDP had a narrow plurality with 122 seats, the Conservatives had 118, the Liberals had 82, the Bloc had 11, and the Greens had 5.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 34% New Democratic (14 seats), 32% Conservative (18 seats), 24% Liberal (8 seats), 9% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 60% Conservative (31 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 14% Liberal (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 47% Conservative (21 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 24% Liberal (3 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 32% New Democratic (39 seats), 30% Conservative (42 seats), 30% Liberal (36 seats), 7% Green (4 seats)
Quebec: 47% New Democratic (63 seats), 20% Liberal (8 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 13% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 45% Liberal (19 seats), 36% New Democratic (9 seats), 18% Conservative (4 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35% New Democratic (132 seats), 29% Conservative (121 seats), 26% Liberal (75 seats), 6% Green (7 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, their three seats will have the same MP’s in the total for the sake of simplicity.

According to my numbers, the NDP has a plurality with 132 seats, 10 more than last time, the Conservatives have 121, a gain of 3, the Liberals have 75, a loss of 7, the Greens have 5, a gain of 2, and the Bloc Quebecois have 3, a loss of 8. It seems that the NDP, Conservatives, and Greens have gained at the Liberals’ and Bloc’s expense. It is largely the same situation as last time – the largest two parties in need of the Liberals to give them a majority.

The NDP’s major gain was in Quebec – a stronghold of theirs. Much of this comes from the decline of the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois. They have made serious declines in British Columbia, though since every other poll has the NDP with a wide lead, this may be an outlier. In the rest of Canada, there has been little movement.

The Conservatives have made significant gains in British Columbia (though it may be an outlier), and to a smaller extent in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Ontario and Atlantic Canada are places where the Conservatives have slightly declined, and Quebec has given the Conservatives serious declines.

The Liberals have remained the same everywhere except in Quebec, where they have declined significantly. The Bloc has also made significant declines in Quebec.

The Greens have made gains in Quebec, a province where they previously have had little support. This is likely due to MP Jose Nunez-Melo’s decision to run as a Green, which means he may have a relatively easy time being re-elected in his riding.

Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, August 17, 2015

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