Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Poll, August 12, 2015

Well, folks, looks like the amount of posts on this blog is going to be high for the next two months. Leger Marketing a new poll. It is quite similar to Forum’s findings yesterday. It has the NDP in the lead with 33%. Virtually tied for second place are the Liberals with 28% and the Conservatives with 27%. The Greens and Bloc bring up the rear with 6% and 5%, respectively.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 36% New Democratic (24 seats), 26% Liberal (7 seats), 23% Conservative (8 seats), 13% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 46% Conservative (26 seats), 23% New Democratic (4 seats), 22% Liberal (4 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 36% Conservative (14 seats), 33% Liberal (9 seats), 21% New Democratic (4 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Ontario: 31% New Democratic (38 seats), 31% Liberal (38 seats), 30% Conservative (42 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 40% New Democratic (46 seats), 21% Liberal (11 seats), 21% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 17% Conservative (10 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 41% Liberal (20 seats), 36% New Democratic (9 seats), 15% Conservative (3 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33% New Democratic (126 seats), 28% Liberal (89 seats), 27% Conservative (105 seats), 6% Green (7 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, the NDP has the plurality of seats with 126, within the range of 101-131 that various polls had yesterday. The Conservatives, despite being in third (albeit a close third) in the popular vote, still have the second largest amount of seats with 105, lower than the 107-133 range predicted by polls yesterday. The Liberals, second in popular vote, would be third in seat count with 89, a slight improvement from the 72-88 range. The Bloc Quebecois would get 11 seats, within the 8-11 range predicted yesterday and one short of Official Party Status. The Greens would get 7 seats, within the upper range of 2-9 in yesterday’s polls.

Overall, for now, it appears that for the most part, trends appear to be solidifying. The NDP has British Columbia and Quebec, the Conservatives have Alberta, the Liberals have Atlantic Canada, and Ontario is a tight three-way battleground that no one appears to be getting any leg up in with any consistency. However, Saskatchewan/Manitoba’s numbers are quite interesting – the Liberals have come out as the definite alternative to the Conservatives in recent days instead of the NDP. This is coupled with the fact that the Liberals were at parity with the NDP in Alberta and second to the NDP in British Columbia in this poll. Could it be that the Liberals are gaining ground? Possibly, but only time will tell whether this is worrisome for the NDP.

Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Poll, August 12, 2015

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