Seat Projection: Mainstreet Technologies Poll, August 11, 2015

Mainstreet Technologies, last time they were in the field, predicted an event that no other pollster has before or since – a wide lead for the Conservatives. This time around, they have the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals in a statistical tie for first place with 31%, 30%, and 29%, respectively. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois bring up the rear with 6% and 4%, respectively.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 37% New Democratic (24 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 23% Conservative (8 seats), 16% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 51% Conservative (28 seats), 23% Liberal (4 seats), 18% New Democratic (2 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 45% Conservative (10 seats), 29% New Democratic (3 seats), 18% Liberal (1 seat), 8% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 44% Conservative (9 seats), 38% Liberal (4 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 35% Conservative (60 seats), 29% New Democratic (28 seats), 29% Liberal (28 seats), 7% Green (5 seats)
Quebec: 32% New Democratic (36 seats), 30% Liberal (23 seats), 21% Conservative (11 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 44% Liberal (21 seats), 28% New Democratic (6 seats), 24% Conservative (5 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31% Conservative (133 seats), 30% New Democratic (101 seats), 29% Liberal (88 seats), 6% Green (8 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, the Conservatives have a plurality of seats with 133, and the New Democrats are in second with 101. The Liberals are in third place with 88 seats. This means that they are the potential kingmaker for either party, as they have enough to push either the Conservatives or the NDP over the top for a majority, and they are ideologically placed between the two parties. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois will each increase their caucus to 8 seats.

In terms of strategy, the NDP has to do a few things. Firstly, its lead has not been threatened in Quebec for the entirety of the 41st Parliament. It cannot let a resurgent Liberal party take its Quebec stronghold, or else the NDP could very well could be finished. Secondly, even though it does not lead in the prairies and likely has no hope of doing so, it should be in a solid second place throughout the region, so that the Liberals do not appear to be the credible alternative. Thirdly, it has to return Ontario to a three-way race or gain a wide lead if it can, or else risk a wide Conservative plurality.

If the Conservatives wish to retain/increase their plurality (with the regional trends, the loss of British Columbia and Atlantic Canada will render a majority near impossible), then they must retain their strong leads in the Prairies and Ontario. The other regions are essentially a lost cause. They need to play to their strengths if they wish to form government for the fourth time in a row.

The Liberals have possibly the biggest task of all ahead of them. They are in the lead nowhere except for Atlantic Canada. However, they are only 12 seats behind the NDP. This means that they have an even enough support level throughout the country. However, in order to get a plurality, or at least beat out the NDP, it needs to take the lead in a seat-rich area. Ontario is a possibility, since the Liberals have beat the NDP there in the recent past before. Now, according to this poll, Quebec is also a possibility, which will hit the NDP right in its stronghold.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Technologies Poll, August 11, 2015

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