Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, August 11, 2015

It has been almost a month since EKOS was last in the field. Last time around, their poll had the NDP at 32%, the Conservatives in a close second with 29.4%, and the Liberals with 24%. The Greens had 6.6%, and the Bloc Quebecois 5.3%, Not much has changed in the latest poll. The NDP hold steady with 31.8%, the Conservatives gained a point and are now at 30.4%, and the Liberals also remain stead with 24.2%. The Greens have increased to 7.3%, and the Bloc Quebecois has decreased to 4.2%. None of these changes are outside the margin of error.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 35% New Democratic (21 seats), 29% Conservative (12 seats), 21% Liberal (6 seats), 13% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 54% Conservative (30 seats), 23% New Democratic (3 seats), 13% Liberal (1 seat), 8% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 41% Conservative (9 seats), 33% New Democratic (4 seats), 19% Liberal (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 36% Liberal (5 seats), 34% Conservative (7 seats), 20% New Democratic (2 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 32% New Democratic (39 seats), 31% Conservative (44 seats), 28% Liberal (34 seats), 7% Green (4 seats)
Quebec: 36% New Democratic (48 seats), 20% Conservative (10 seats), 20% Liberal (10 seats), 18% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 4% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 35% Liberal (15 seats), 33% New Democratic (11 seats), 20% Conservative (5 seats), 9% Green (1 seat)
Total: 31.8% New Democratic (129 seats), 30.4% Conservative (119 seats), 24.2% Liberal (72 seats), 7.3% Green (9 seats), 4.2% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I left their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicty.

The seat projection itself at the national level does not show much movement. The NDP is projected to get 129 seats, 2 down from the last time EKOS was in the field. The Conservatives would get 119 seats, 3 up from then. The Liberals will stay exactly the same with 72. The Greens have 9 seats, a gain of 2 from the last poll, and the Bloc Quebecois has 9 seats, 3 down from the last poll.

This does not change the dynamics of the race at all: the NDP has the plurality, and the Conservatives are in second. The Liberals, in third, ideologically between the two parties, and mathematically able to give either party a secure majority, has kingmaker status. The Greens and Bloc both have an increased caucus, but are short of Official Party Status.

However, there are some regional trends at play. The NDP is gaining in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, but declining in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Quebec. The Conservatives are gaining in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec, steady in Manitoba, and declining in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. The Liberals are gaining in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, holding steady in Quebec, and declining in Alberta, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada.

What does this mean for all the parties? The NDP is gaining in two very strategic areas: one to clinch a plurality (Ontario), and the other to gain a moral victory over the Liberals (Atlantic Canada). However, its declines elsewhere, however small, must be monitored to make sure they don’t get out of hand. The Conservatives are gaining in their historical strongholds (with the exception of Quebec, which they have little inroads in), but are declining in the most important province they need to win. They have to have a wide lead to clinch the plurality there. The Liberals are becoming the alternative to the Conservatives Saskatchewan and Manitoba, but it doesn’t outweigh their declines in the strategically important Ontario and the morally important Atlantic Canada.

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Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, August 11, 2015

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