A Tale of Two Polls: Seat Projections of Forum and Mainstreet Polls

On July 20-21, two different polls came out: one by Forum and one by Mainstreet Research. Both showcase two radically different results. The Forum poll indicates a continued NDP lead with 34%, the Liberals in second with 29%, and the Conservatives very close behind with 28%. The Bloc Quebecois and Greens bring up the rear with 5% and 4%, respectively. The Mainstreet poll indicates a game changer – 38% Conservative, 27% New Democratic, 25% Liberal, 6% Green, and 4% Bloc Quebecois. The Conservatives have rarely held this much of a lead since 2011.

Here is the seat projection for the Forum poll*:
British Columbia: 43% New Democratic (28 seats), 27% Conservative (9 seats), 23% Liberal (5 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 42% Conservative (24 seats), 32% New Democratic (7 seats), 20% Liberal (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 53% Conservative (24 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 21% Liberal (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 33% Liberal (40 seats), 31% Conservative (41 seats), 31% New Democratic (38 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 38% New Democratic (48 seats), 20% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 20% Conservative (10 seats), 19% Liberal (10 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 46% Liberal (21 seats), 29% New Democratic (6 seats), 25% Conservative (5 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34% New Democratic (130 seats), 29% Liberal (81 seats), 28% Conservative (115 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Mainstreet poll*,**:
British Columbia: 43% New Democratic (28 seats), 28% Conservative (9 seats), 21% Liberal (4 seats), 10% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (30 seats), 22% Liberal (2 seats), 16% New Democratic (2 seats), 10% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 49% Conservative (22 seats), 23% Liberal (3 seats), 21% New Democratic (3 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 45% Conservative (84 seats), 27% Liberal (22 seats), 21% New Democratic (13 seats), 7% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 37% New Democratic (49 seats), 22% Conservative (11 seats), 22% Liberal (11 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 38% Liberal (19 seats), 28% Conservative (7 seats), 27% New Democratic (6 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Total: 38% Conservative (165 seats), 27% New Democratic (102 seats), 25% Liberal (61 seats), 6% Green (4 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.
**Since Mainstreet didn’t separate undecided voters from decided, I calculated each party’s percentage of the decided vote.

These polls tell two highly different stories. In one, the NDP will win a minority government. In another, it remains in opposition with slightly less votes but almost the same seat count as 2011. In one poll, the Conservatives are third in popular vote and second in seat count, and in another it is 5 seats shy of a majority government. In one poll, the Liberals are second in popular vote and third in seat count and a potential kingmaker, and in another, the Liberals are a more distant third and can only bring the Conservatives over the top alone. In both polls, the Bloc Quebecois are short of Official Party status. Finally, in one poll, the Greens will remain the same size in the House of Commons, and in another, they will double their caucus.

Which is true? Only time will tell.

Advertisements
A Tale of Two Polls: Seat Projections of Forum and Mainstreet Polls

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s