Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Poll, July 16, 2015

Leger Marketing released a poll this week that mirror’s Forum’s results – a Conservative and NDP tie at 32%, and the Liberals in a slightly distant third at 25%. Bringing up the rear are the Greens with 6%, and the Bloc Quebecois with 5%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 36% New Democratic (21 seats), 27% Conservative (11 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 12% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 43% Conservative (23 seats), 32% New Democratic (7 seats), 21% Liberal (4 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 35% Conservative (12 seats), 32% Liberal (9 seats), 30% New Democratic (7 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 38% Conservative (69 seats), 29% Liberal (28 seats), 27% New Democratic (22 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 37% New Democratic (47 seats), 23% Conservative (12 seats), 19% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 18% Liberal (9 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 35% Liberal (13 seats), 35% New Democratic (12 seats), 18% Conservative (5 seats), 11% Green (2 seats)
Total: Conservative 32% (134 seats), New Democratic 32% (117 seats), Liberal 25% (72 seats), Green 6% (5 seats), Bloc Quebecois 5% (10 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, the Conservatives are first in the seat count for the first time in a couple of months with 134 seats, and would form a minority government. The New Democrats would have an increased presence as the Official Opposition with 117 seats. The Liberals would have potential kingmaker status at 72 seats. The Bloc Quebecois will increase their caucus to 10 seats, 2 short of regaining Official Party Status. The Greens will increase their caucus to 5 seats.

What does this mean? First of all, trouble for the NDP. The NDP was reigning supreme the last few weeks. For it to now be neck-and-neck with the Conservatives may be a drop from the honeymoon, or worse, a return to second place. Only time will tell. Its main drop is in the province of Ontario, in which the Conservatives have made great strides regaining support. It will have to fight hard to bring it back to its former status as deadlocked between the three major parties.

However, not all is bread and roses for the Conservatives either. If these results are correct, that means they will be forming a minority government. The Liberals, with potential kingmaker status, or at the very least the party that can determine whether a government falls or not, could go into coalition with the NDP and still knock the Conservatives out of power. For the Liberals, this may be their way back into government – remaining in third two elections in a row makes it a possibility that it may be Canada’s third party for a generation at least.

Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Poll, July 16, 2015

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