Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, July 14, 2015

EKOS has been a bit quiet in its opinion polling for the last couple of weeks. However, a couple of days ago it conducted its first survey since June 28, leading to a new poll. The NDP has increased its support from 30.9% to 32.6%, which is huge keeping in mind that EKOS was the first poll to predict the NDP’s rise. The Conservatives also rose, from 27.3% to 29.4%. The Liberals declined from 25.6% to 24%. The Greens stayed steady at 6.6%. The Bloc declined from 6.3% to 5.3%, belying the results of this week’s Forum poll.

Here is my seat projection using the EKOS poll data*:
British Columbia: 41% New Democratic (28 seats), 27% Conservative (9 seats), 20% Liberal (4 seats), 9% Green (1 seat) NDP and Conservative gains at Liberal and Green expense
Alberta: 49% Conservative (27 seats), 29% New Democratic (5 seats), 15% Liberal (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats) NDP gains at Liberal expense
Saskatchewan: 45% New Democratic (10 seats), 34% Conservative (4 seats), 12% Liberal (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats) NDP gains at Conservative and Liberal expense
Manitoba: 33% Conservative (7 seats), 32% New Democratic (4 seats), 27% Liberal (3 seats), 7% Green (0 seats) NDP gains at Conservative expense
Ontario: 33% Conservative (55 seats), 29% Liberal (35 seats), 27% New Democratic (26 seats), 8% Green (5 seats) Conservative and Green gains at NDP expense
Quebec: 37% New Democratic (49 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 19% Liberal (10 seats), 15% Conservative (6 seats), 5% Green (1 seat) NDP gains at Bloc Quebecois, Liberal, Conservative, Green expense
Atlantic Canada: 38% Liberal (18 seats), 31% New Democratic (8 seats), 25% Conservative (6 seats), 4% Green (0 seats) NDP gains at Liberal and Conservative expense
Total: 32.9% New Democratic (131 seats), 29.4% Conservative (116 seats), 24% Liberal (72 seats), 6.6% Green (7 seats), 5.3% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, their three seats will have the same MP’s in the total for the sake of simplicity.

With my numbers, the NDP will be forming a minority government with 131 seats, the same amount of seats as the last poll’s numbers projected. The Conservatives will form Official Opposition with 116 seats, the Liberals will be potential kingmakers with 72 seats, the Bloc Quebecois will return to Official Party Status with 12 seats, and the Greens will increase their caucus to 7.

The NDP has the most positive regional indicators out of the three major parties. They are gaining in all regions except for Ontario, in which they have declined. Unlike this week’s Forum poll, the EKOS poll did not show the NDP in the lead in Atlantic Canada. However, it still made gains there at the expense of the Liberals. The gains speak for themselves in terms of why it would be good for the NDP. However, their status in Ontario is nonetheless troubling for them – not only are they a more distant third than the previously tight results in Ontario, but the Liberals are ahead of them here. Whoever wins Ontario is likely to win the election – if the Conservatives or Liberals win here, the NDP will likely kiss its chance at the Prime Minister’s Office goodbye.

The Conservatives have a mixed bag. They are gaining in British Columbia and Ontario, holding steady in Alberta, and declining in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The good news for them – they are making huge gains in their stronghold, Ontario, which is a province paramount to them winning the election. Are the gains to their 2011 days? No, but that is not to be expected. Also good news – maintaining in British Columbia. They are likely to suffer huge losses, but it appears the bleeding has stopped there. They are also holding steady in their longtime stronghold of Alberta. However, the declines everywhere else, including their only possible area of expansion (Quebec), showcase grimmer prospects.

The Liberals face possibly the most negative over the past two weeks. They have recorded gains nowhere. They are holding steady in Manitoba and Ontario, and declining in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The gains in Ontario are a bright spot – if they can sustain them, they may very well be able to get the soft NDP vote to their side. After all, the party that wins Ontario usually forms the government. Increases in Manitoba also are a result of tapping into previously untapped ground. However, declines everywhere else while the NDP is usually gaining is a sign that the Liberals are losing to the NDP in terms of who wins the tactical vote.

As for the other two major parties, the picture is rather steady-as-she-goes. The Bloc Quebecois remains at 12 seats just like two weeks ago, and the Greens remain at 7.

Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, July 14, 2015

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