Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, July 6, 2014

Hello everyone, I apologize for being late with this post. I was busy prepping for my GRE exam. In the latest Abacus Data poll, the trend of an NDP lead has continued, with the party leading at 32%, the Conservatives in a close second at 29%, and the Liberals rounding out third place at 27%. The Bloc Quebecois and Greens are tied with 6% support. This reflects the last month or so of polling in which there has been a close three-way race between the parties for the Prime Minister’s Office.

Here is the seat projection model using the data provided by Abacus*:
British Columbia: 38% New Democratic (22 seats), 30% Conservative (13 seats), 25% Liberal (7 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 48% Conservative (26 seats), 29% New Democratic (7 seats), 12% Liberal (1 seat), 7% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 40% Conservative (19 seats), 28% Liberal (5 seats), 24% New Democratic (4 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 31% Conservative (43 seats), 31% New Democratic (38 seats), 29% Liberal (35 seats), 8% Green (5 seats)
Quebec: 34% New Democratic (42 seats), 25% Liberal (16 seats), 21% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 17% Conservative (9 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 40% Liberal (18 seats), 31% New Democratic (8 seats), 22% Conservative (6 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32% New Democratic (122 seats), 29% Conservative (118 seats), 27% Liberal (82 seats), 6% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 6% Green (5 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, their three seats will have the same MP’s in the total for the sake of simplicity.

These results are very much on par with the EKOS poll of last week, with the New Democrats having a minority government by a slim margin with 122 seats. The Conservatives would be in a breathtakingly close second place with 118 seats, despite the fact they trail in the popular vote by three percentage points. That is the power of incumbency advantage. The Liberals are, by comparison, in a more distant third with 82 seats, which puts them in kingmaker status, as they are ideologically between the Conservatives and NDP. The Bloc Quebecois will take 11 seats, one shy of Official Party Status but certainly a rebound for the previously moribund party. The Greens will take 5 seats, an increase of 3 from their current standings.

If this poll were to be compared to the EKOS and Forum polls of the previous week, there are both substantial similarities and differences in the regional trends. Comparison to both polls agree upon Conservative gains in British Columbia, Liberal declines in Alberta, Conservative gains in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Liberal declines in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Green gains in Ontario, Liberal gains in Quebec, and Bloc Quebecois declines in Quebec.

Where do they diverge? Comparison with Forum indicates NDP declines while comparison with EKOS indicates NDP stagnation. In Alberta, comparison with EKOS indicates the NDP is declining, while comparison with Forum indicates the NDP is rising, and the reverse is true for the Conservatives. In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, comparison with EKOS shows the NDP stagnating, while Forum shows the NDP declining. In Ontario, comparison with EKOS shows NDP declines, while comparison with Forum shows NDP gains. In addition, comparison with EKOS show Liberal and Conservative stagnation, while Forum show both the Liberals and Conservatives declining in Ontario. In Quebec, comparison with EKOS shows NDP and Conservative gains, while Forum shows the NDP declining and the Conservatives stagnating. The most disagreement is in Atlantic Canada – comparison with EKOS shows an NDP gain at Liberal and Conservative expense, while comparison with forum shows a Conservative gain at the NDP’s expense.

What implications do all these trends have for the five major parties competing in this election? For the NDP, there is no strong indication that they are rising anywhere, but rather stagnating or declining. This may be a result of hitting a possible support ceiling, and may represent a roadblock in their road to forming government. The Conservatives appear to be bouncing back from a nadir in support, and may very well continue to gain support and overtake the NDP once again in seat count. The Liberals are holding steady overall, but need to increase their vote efficiency and increase their support in Ontario and Quebec if they wish to make gains. The honeymoon may be over for the Bloc Quebecois as they start to return to normal numbers. For the Greens, it seems that with support in British Columbia no longer being higher than the average, they may find a new home in Ontario.

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Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, July 6, 2014

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