Seat Projection: EKOS and Forum Polls, June 28/29, 2015

EKOS and Forum are both continuing to project what appears to be an increasingly tight three-way race between the governing Conservatives, resurgent NDP and the once-invincible appearing Liberals. In the latest EKOS poll, the NDP is still leading with 30.9%, the Conservatives are in a close second with 27.3%, the Liberals remain in third with 25.6%, with the Greens (6.6%) and the Bloc Quebecois (6.3%) bringing up the rear. In the latest Forum poll, the NDP retains its lead with 32%, the Liberals in second with 29%, the governing Conservatives in a close third with 27%, and the Bloc (6%) and Greens (4%) trailing.

Here is the seat projection with my model using the latest EKOS Poll*:
British Columbia: 36% New Democratic (25 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 21% Conservative (7 seats), 16% Green (3 seats) Liberal gain at Conservative expense
Alberta: 47% Conservative (27 seats), 25% New Democratic (4 seats), 18% Liberal (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats) NDP and Liberal gain at Conservative expense
Saskatchewan: 43% Conservative (8 seats), 28% Liberal (3 seats), 27% New Democratic (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats) Liberal gain at Conservative expense
Manitoba: 40% Conservative (10 seats), 29% Liberal (3 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 14% Green (0 seats) Conservative gain at Liberal and NDP expense
Ontario: 33% New Democratic (40 seats), 30% Conservative (43 seats), 29% Liberal (35 seats), 4% Green (2 seats) NDP and Liberal gain at Conservative and Green expense
Quebec: 32% New Democratic (41 seats), 25% Bloc Quebecois (16 seats), 21% Liberal (11 seats), 15% Conservative (8 seats), 6% Green (2 seats) NDP gain at BQ, Liberal, Conservative expense
Atlantic Canada: 37% Liberal (20 seats), 26% Conservative (7 seats), 24% New Democratic (5 seats), 5% Green (0 seats) Liberal and Conservative gain at NDP expense
Total: 30.9% New Democratic (121 seats), 27.3% Conservative (112 seats), 25.6% Liberal (82 seats), 6.6% Green (7 seats), 6.3% Bloc Quebecois (16 seats)

Here is the seat projection with my model using the latest Forum Poll*:
British Columbia: 43% New Democratic (28 seats), 26% Conservative (9 seats), 23% Liberal (5 seats), 7% Green (0 seats) Conservative and Liberal gain at NDP expense
Alberta: 41% Conservative (18 seats), 37% New Democratic (13 seats), 20% Liberal (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats) NDP gain at Conservative and Liberal expense
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 35% Liberal (10 seats), 32% Conservative (10 seats), 29% New Democratic (8 seats), 4% Green (0 seats) Liberal gain at NDP expense
Ontario: 35% Liberal (42 seats), 32% Conservative (50 seats), 27% New Democratic (26 seats), 5% Green (3 seats) Liberal and Conservative gain at NDP expense
Quebec: 33% New Democratic (46 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 22% Liberal (11 seats), 18% Conservative (9 seats), 3% Green (0 seats) Bloc gain at Liberal expense
Atlantic Canada: 39% Liberal (18 seats), 34% New Democratic (9 seats), 21% Conservative (5 seats), 6% Green (0 seats) Liberal and NDP gain at Conservative expense
Total: 32% New Democratic (131 seats), 29% Liberal (89 seats), 27% Conservative (103 seats), 6% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 4% Green (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, their three seats will have the same MP’s in the total for the sake of simplicity.

These results predict the same outcome for first place – the NDP will form a minority government, albeit on very shaky ground, commanding only slightly more than a third of the seats in either projection. The second place finisher in terms of seats is also the same between the two polls: the Conservatives. However, in the Forum poll, the Conservatives are third in the popular vote. The Liberals, despite coming in second in the Forum Poll, still had around the same result as the EKOS poll. The Bloc Quebecois will return to Official Party Status under Gilles Duceppe with 12 seats, and the Greens will increase their caucus to 3 seats.

At the regional level, trends are not uniform between the two polls. In the EKOS poll, the NDP is gaining in Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec, stagnating in British Columbia and Saskatchewan, and declining in Manitoba and Atlantic Canada. In the Forum poll, the NDP is gaining in Alberta and Atlantic Canada, stagnating in Quebec, and declining in British Columbia, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Ontario. In the EKOS poll, the Conservatives are gaining in Manitoba and Atlantic Canada, and declining in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec. In the Forum poll, the Conservatives are gaining in British Columbia and Ontario, stagnating in Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Quebec, and declining in Alberta and Atlantic Canada. In the EKOS poll, the Liberals are gaining in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Atlantic Canada, and declining in Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. In the Forum poll, the Liberals are gaining in British Columbia, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada and declining in Alberta and Quebec. In the EKOS poll, the Bloc is gaining, and in the Forum poll, the Bloc is declining. In the EKOS poll, the Greens are holding steady everywhere except for Ontario, in which they are registering declines. In the Forum poll, the Greens are holding everywhere except for Ontario, in which they are registering gains.

What are the implications for these results? Well, first of all, it should be noted that despite very similar national numbers between the two polls, there are very different trends at the regional level. If the EKOS numbers are right, the NDP is gaining in a mix of strongholds and new territory, holding steady in its strong areas, and declining in already untapped areas, which means it can expect to hold steady or make gains. This bodes well for them in their quest to remain the first place party. The Forum poll has the opposite – declines in strong areas and gains in untapped areas, which proves troubling, and means they can even out their result at best. For the Conservatives, in both polls, they are in trouble – they are gaining in areas where it would not be efficient to maximize the vote, and declining in the few areas of expansion they have left. The Liberals are gaining in the West of Canada and their stronghold, Atlantic Canada, but they run into problems – they are competing with a resurgent NDP who is still beating them in the West, and these areas are not where the bulk of the seats are. In the two largest provinces, they are not doing so well. They must concentrate their resources in these two provinces in order to pull off a win, which is still possible in a three-way race. The Bloc, in either poll, regains Official Party Status and a National Platform. The Greens are back from near-extinction, registering seats in both polls, and simply have to hold steady to make gains. However, if Forum’s numbers are true, they need to up their numbers in British Columbia.

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Seat Projection: EKOS and Forum Polls, June 28/29, 2015

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