Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, June 23, 2015

LISPOP has put out a seat projection for the latest Ipsos Reid poll. The numbers are similar to the Forum poll that came out the same day (which my projection shows 146 NDP, 99 Conservative, 83 Liberal, and 10 Bloc Quebecois). In the Ipsos Reid poll, the NDP is in the lead with 35%, the Liberals in second place with 29%, the incumbent Conservatives in a close third with 28%, the Bloc Quebecois with 6%, and the Greens with 2%. From this, LISPOP has projected 130 New Democrats, 119 Conservatives, 86 Liberals, 2 Blocquistes, and 1 Green in the House of Commons. My model will show differently. Here is the seat projection using my model*: British Columbia: 40% New Democratic (25 seats), 30% Conservative (10 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 6% Green (0 seats) Alberta: 43% Conservative (21 seats), 37% New Democratic (10 seats), 18% Liberal (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats) Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 37% New Democratic (12 seats), 36% Liberal (10 seats), 25% Conservative (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats) Ontario: 34% Liberal (41 seats), 33% Conservative (42 seats), 31% New Democratic (38 seats), 2% Green (0 seats) Quebec: 41% New Democratic (50 seats), 23% Liberal (12 seats), 22% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 13% Conservative (5 seats), 0% Green (0 seats) Atlantic Canada: 51% Liberal (22 seats), 25% Conservative (6 seats), 22% New Democratic (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats) Total: 35% New Democratic (140 seats), 29% Liberal (95 seats), 28% Conservative (92 seats), 6% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 2% Green (0 seats) *Northern Canada was not polled, so I left their three seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity. With those numbers, the NDP wins 140 seats, forming a minority government and an increase of 37 from 2011. The Liberals form the Official Opposition for the first time since 2011 with 95 seats, nearly tripling their 2011 result. The governing Conservatives fall to third place with 92 seats, the first time this has been projected on this blog. The Bloc Quebecois increases their seat count from 4 to 11, one shy of Official Party Status. The Greens are shut out of the legislature. These are comparable to the Forum Poll’s numbers (146 NDP, 99 Con, 83 Lib, 10 BQ) with the exception of one huge thing: who forms the Official Opposition, and who becomes the kingmaker. This can change the nature of the House of Commons rather drastically.

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Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, June 23, 2015

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