Seat Projection: NDP Leading, Bloc and Grits Flatlining in Angus Reid Poll

Angus Reid came out with a poll that confirms EKOS’s findings vis a vis the NDP: they are opening up a lead. It remains to be seen whether that lead will stay through the honeymoon period of the NDP’s historic result in Alberta, but any statement on where those numbers will go is little more than speculation.

In the poll, 36% support the New Democrats, 33% support the Conservatives, 23% support the Liberals, 4% support the Bloc Quebecois, and 4% support the Greens. There was a ton of speculation as to whether Gilles Duceppe’s return as leader of the Bloc Quebecois would eat into the NDP’s numbers in Quebec, with many predicting a partial resurgence under Duceppe. If this poll is any indication, then it hasn’t had a registered effect.

Here is what my model shows regarding the seat projection*:
British Columbia: 38% New Democratic (21 seats), 30% Conservative (13 seats), 23% Liberal (6 seats), 9% Green (2 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) Short Term: NDP gain at expense of Conservatives and Liberals
Alberta: 56% Conservative (32 seats), 25% New Democratic (3 seats), 14% Liberal (1 seat), 3% Green (0 seats), 2% Other (0 seats) Short Term: Conservative gain at expense of NDP
Saskatchewan: 47% Conservative (10 seats), 30% New Democratic (3 seats), 19% Liberal (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats), 0% Other (0 seats) Short Term: NDP and Liberal gain at expense of Greens
Manitoba: 47% Conservative (10 seats), 26% Liberal (2 seats), 23% New Democratic (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) Short Term: Conservative gain at expense of Liberals
Ontario: 36% Conservative (59 seats), 34% New Democratic (41 seats), 25% Liberal (20 seats), 3% Green (1 seat), 1% Other (0 seats) Short Term: Conservative gain at expense of NDP
Quebec: 48% New Democratic (66 seats), 17% Liberal (4 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 16% Conservative (4 seats), 1% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) Short Term: NDP gain at expense of Liberals, Bloc, Conservatives, Greens
Atlantic Canada: 41% Liberal (20 seats), 28% New Democratic (6 seats), 27% Conservative (6 seats), 4% Green (0 seats), 0% Other (0 seats) Short term: Conservative gain at expense of Liberals
Total: 36% New Democratic (142 seats), 33% Conservative (135 seats), 23% Liberal (54 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 4% Green (3 seats), 1% Other

*No information as to the Territories, so their seats stay with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

According to the poll’s numbers, if the election were held tomorrow, the NDP would receive 142 seats, forming a minority government. The Conservatives would take up the Official Opposition closely behind at 135 seats. The Liberals would increase their caucus from their 2011 result, but remain in third. The Bloc Quebecois will maintain their 2011 result at 4 seats, but not move up. The Greens will add a third seat in Ontario.

In terms of its relation to the EKOS poll that came out in 2012, the national and regional trends prove interesting. Nationally, even though the NDP rose three points from the EKOS poll, the Conservatives also rose. In terms of seats, the NDP’s share had a slight decline from the EKOS poll (150 down to 142). The Conservatives make a gain of 35 seats (100 seats up to 135). This was largely a result of the results in Ontario, where EKOS had a wide NDP lead, and Angus Reid has a narrow Conservative lead. The Liberals also decline nationally from 66 seats to 54. The Bloc and Greens both decline to 4 and 3 seats respectively from 11 each. This may represent a decline for a Bloc in seat count, time will tell, but this is more of an offset of the improbable result of 11 seats for the Greens, who likely have not declined at all.

In terms of regional trends over the short term, the NDP has made gains in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Quebec, was stagnant in Manitoba and Atlantic Canada, and declined in Alberta and Ontario. The Conservatives made gains in Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, were stagnant in Saskatchewan, and registered declines in British Columbia and Quebec. The Liberals made gains in Saskatchewan, stagnated in Alberta, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, and declined in British Columbia, Manitoba, and Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois declined in Quebec. The Greens retained their support in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada, but decreased their seat counts in Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec. However, I believe that the seat counts in those three provinces were likely overstated by the model, as the Green vote is less uniform than the votes of other parties.

Nationally, the NDP makes a gain of 39 seats from the 2011 election, the Conservatives lose 31, the Liberals gain 20, the Bloc stays the same, and the Greens gain 2. The NDP stands to make gains in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec, whilst stagnating in Manitoba and Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives will register varying degrees of decline throughout Canada. The Liberals stand to make gains in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, whilst declining in Quebec. The Bloc stands to stay the same in Quebec. The Greens make gains in British Columbia and Ontario, staying the same everywhere else.

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Seat Projection: NDP Leading, Bloc and Grits Flatlining in Angus Reid Poll

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