Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, June 12, 2015

EKOS has been noticing a continuous rise of the NDP in its polling, which has been documented by other polling firms as well since the NDP’s win in the Alberta Provincial Electon. However, EKOS remains the only polling firm that puts the NDP squarely in first place in terms of the popular vote.

The iPolitics article about the most recent EKOS poll projects the NDP winning 146 seats, the Conservatives 102, the Liberals 85, the Bloc Quebecois 4, and the Greens 1, which would deliver the NDP a minority government, likely with Liberal confidence and supply.

Here is what my model shows*:
British Columbia: 33% New Democratic (14 seats), 31% Conservative (18 seats), 25% Liberal (8 seats), 9% Green (2 seats) (42 seats) NDP and Liberal gains at expense of Conservatives
Alberta: 44% Conservative (24 seats), 31% New Democratic (7 seats), 17% Liberal (3 seats), 4% (0 seats) Green (34 seats) NDP and Liberal gains at expense of Conservatives
Saskatchewan: 41% Conservative (10 seats), 25% New Democratic (2 seats), 23% Green (2 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats) (14 seats) NDP and Green gains at expense of Conservatives and Liberals
Manitoba: 39% Conservative (9 seats), 29% Liberal (3 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 8% Green (0 seats) (14 seats) Liberal gains at expense of Conservatives
Ontario: 36% New Democratic (70 seats), 26% Conservative (25 seats), 26% Liberal (21 seats), 8% Green (5 seats) (121 seats) NDP, Liberal, and Green gains at expense of Conservatives
Quebec: 35% New Democratic (49 seats), 21% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 18% Conservative (9 seats), 16% Liberal (8 seats), 5% Green (1 seat) (78 seats) Bloc and Conservative gains at expense of NDP
Atlantic Canada: 43% Liberal (23 seats), 30% New Democratic (6 seats), 18% Conservative (3 seats), 6% Green (0 seats) (32 seats) Liberal gains at expense of Conservatives
Total: 33.6% New Democratic (150 seats), 26.9% Conservative (100 seats), 23.3% Liberal (66 seats), 7.3% Green (11 seats), 5.1% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 4% Other (0 seats)

*Northern Canada is not represented in this poll, so their results will be the status quo for the sake of simplicity.

In comparison to the iPolitics projection, my projection has the NDP and Conservatives largely at the same place. The main difference is that the Liberal projection is significantly lower, with those seats distributed to the Greens and Bloc. One fault of this model is that the Greens are overrepresented due to the large seat counts of Ontario and Quebec without any subregional data. The projection gets skewed with larger numbers of seats, and the equation needs to be tweaked to account for that.

These results predict an NDP minority government with 150 seats, up 47 from their 2011 results. The Conservatives will drop 62 seats to 100. The Liberals will nearly double their caucus with 66 seats, but remain in third place. The Bloc Quebecois will have a partial resurgence, increasing from 4 to 11 seats. If this projection is right about the Greens, they will quintuple their caucus, with huge gains in Ontario.

In terms of regional trends, the Conservatives are declining everywhere except for Quebec. The NDP is registering gains in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario, stagnation in Manitoba and Atlantic Canada, and declines in Quebec from their 2011 results. The Liberals are registering gains in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, stagnating in Quebec, and declining in Saskatchewan from their 2011 results. The Greens are gaining in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. The Bloc is gaining ground in Quebec. No word on the Forces et Democratie, whom pollsters have neglected to include up to this point.

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Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, June 12, 2015

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