Léger Marketing Poll: Quebec Provincial Election/Federal Election in Quebec, June 11, 2015

This is the first projection so far on this website, and it’s for the Quebec general election, and it’s using Leger Marketing’s Poll. About a month ago, Pierre Karl Paladeau became the leader of the Parti Quebecis, which gave the party a slight bump in the polls for a while, leading the governing Liberals and decreasing Legault’s CAQ’s share of support. Interestingly, it had no effect on Quebec Solidaire, the other competing sovereigntist party.

In addition, Gilles Duceppe, the most recognizable leader in Bloc Quebecois history, has become the leader once again. The party was flagging in the polls for a while under Daniel Paille, and even worse under ardent separatist Mario Beaulieu. From the federal aspect of this Leger Marketing poll, it seems that Gilles Duceppe has increased the Bloc’s numbers significantly.

Because this doubles as both a federal and provincial poll, I will make both federal and provincial projections.

Federal:
Montreal: 32% New Democratic (10 seats), 31% Liberal (7 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 12% Conservative (1 seat), 1% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) (22 seats)
Quebec City: 32% Conservative (3 seats), 28% Bloc Quebecois (1 seat), 26% New Democratic (1 seat), 11% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) (5 seats)
Rest of Quebec: 32% New Democratic (24 seats), 28% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 20% Liberal (7 seats), 17% Conservative (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats), 0% Other (0 seats) (51 seats) (35 NDP, 5 Con, 4 Bloc, 1 Lib)
Total: 32% New Democratic (35 seats), 26% Bloc Quebecois (19 seats), 24% Liberal (14 seats), 16% Conservative (10 seats), 2% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) (78 seats)

If the election were held tomorrow, then the New Democrats would stand to decline from their current 54 seats to 35 seats in Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois would increase its share from 2 seats to 19 seats, still not at their glory days in the 1990s, but returning to Official Party Status. Most of these gains would be at the expense of the NDP The Liberals would double their seat count from 7 to 14 seats, mildly at the expense of the NDP. The Conservatives would also double their seat count from 5 to 10, mainly at the expense of the NDP in Quebec City. The Greens would remain without seats in Quebec.

What implications would these results in Quebec have for the larger federal election? Well, it may prove troubling for the NDP. Quebec was the lion’s share of NDP seats, and any road to power would mean holding on to those seats. Due to the inefficiency of the NDP vote in large swaths of the country, efficient places like Quebec are key. If the seat count declines there, the NDP is in trouble. The Bloc may see a resurgence under Duceppe, but it remains to be seen whether that is a honeymoon effect or a continuous trend. The Conservatives would have a shot at retaining a plurality if they increased the share of the vote in the province they are most unpopular.

Provincial:
Montreal: 42% Liberal (35 seats), 28% Parti Quebecois (9 seats), 18% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats), 9% Quebec Solidaire (1 seat), 3% Other (0 seats) (49 seats) Liberal gains at the expense of Parti Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire
Quebec City: 33% Liberal (6 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (3 seats), 25% Coalition Avenir Quebec (2 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats), 3% Other (0 seats) (11 seats) Parti Quebecois Gains at expense of Liberals
Rest of Quebec: 36% Parti Quebecois (32 seats), 31% Liberal (20 seats), 22% Coalition Avenir Quebec (10 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) (65 seats) Parti Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire gains at expense of Liberals and CAQ
Total: 36% Liberal (61 seats), 32% Parti Quebecois (44 seats), 20% Coalition Avenir Quebecois (16 seats), 10% Quebec Soldaire (4 seats), 2% Other (0 seats)

If the election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would be re-elected. However, they would be reduced to a minority government with 61 of 125 seats. The Parti Quebecois will again form the Official Opposition, but will increase its share of seats from 30 to 44. Francois Legault’s CAQ will decline from 22 seats to 16, and Quebec Solidaire will increase their caucus from 3 to 4.

Interestingly, the regional data does not specify many transcending trends. In Montreal, the Liberals have increased strength, but the Liberals decline in Quebec City and the rest of Quebec. The Parti Quebecois suffers losses in Montreal, but enjoys gains in Quebec City and the rest of Quebec. The CAQ either stagnates and declines in all regions. Quebec Solidaire declines in Montreal, while it makes huge gains in the rest of Quebec. However, it should be noted that when such a large block of seats is used, the projection gets less accurate. If it included a separation of the Regions of Quebec into two or more regions, then the results may vary.

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Léger Marketing Poll: Quebec Provincial Election/Federal Election in Quebec, June 11, 2015

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